A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
